Lithuania Net export
Introduction. Economic data analysis. Shocks and is-lm model. Proposals. Conclusion. References.
International relationships are really important in all nowadays economies. Sufficient and well-being country are not successful without international relationships and expecialy without international trade system, because it is though as one of the main reasons of economic growth. You can see international trade in the Net export, which is export minus import. However, economy can growh only when Net export is possitive, if the country has good international relationship infrastructure, but its main activity is imports, economy can‘t grow, because Net export is negative.
We also tried to check main probems of Lithuania‘s economy and we saw that from 2000 till 2014 yearly Net export was always negative. So its one of the main problems of this decade. However, we consentraded on shorter period of time, from 2009 to 2014, because it would be more sufficient to check economic tendentions after crisis, during the previous years. But the main goal of Lithuania economy and our work is relieve the policies, apply macroeconomics models and frameworks to our country‘s economy. It goes without saying that we will use macroeconomic models to relieve biggest shocks related to international trade during 6 last years and the best model for Lithuania economy is IS-LM model, because it is stable price level.
Lithuania even in the 2014 suffered big shocks in trade market. One of them was embargo to Rusia, when farmers from lithuania could not produce meat and meat products, milk and milk products, vegetables and fruits products. And Lithuania was number one country that has the biggest impact of this embargo, which led to export shank (Genytė-Pikčienė, 2014).
Topics novelty and relevance. As we mentioned before international trade is really wide analyzed theme and possitive Net export is one of the main indicators, which leads to economic growth and rising GDP per capita. When we analyzed Lithuania‘s economy, we noticed negative Net export numbers in all decade and even more. Afterwards we determine in our oppinion the events, which had the highest impact in economy.
And of course international trade theme are analyzed by lithuanian authors in economic literature ( (D. Bernotanytė, A. Miškinis, V.Gavelis, O.G. Rakauskienė, R. Patalavičius, etc.) and or course foreign authors, which sees the international trade and possitive Net export numbers as a priority to economy - D. Hanson, J. Morrison, D. Kelly, W.Grant, Ashraf Q., Gershman B., Howit P, etc.
Work object. Negative Net export numbers in Lithuania.
Work goal. To relieve main shock that has an impact to Net export using macroeconomics models.
Used methods. Data analysis, which includes periods of change analysis, as well as, IS-LM model.
Work structure. Table of contents, introduction, economic data analysis, shocks and IS-LM model, proposals, conclusion and references. Work contains 5 chapters, 7 examples and 11 pages.
In 1 example you can see Lithuania Import and export balance in billions of Euros during 2009-2014 period. It represents Lithuania import and export amount. In X asis you can see period of years from 2009 to 2014, while in the Y asis there is export and import in billions of Euros. The amplitute of fluctuation in export is 12.51 billions of Euros and in import 15.03 billions of Euros, it means that the lowest amount of import and export was at 2009 (€17.24 / €14.1 B) , while the highest gather of money was at 2014 (€32,27 / €26.61 B). We noticed that every year import and export grow by big differences. There was small stagnation from 2011 to 2012, but after this year it is constantly gowing up. Also we made a linear trend line, which represents that the multiplier is possitive, so it means that it is tend to grow during the following year.